Gilead Yeztugo Launch Drives Stock Rebound Toward $1B Sales Goal

From Disappointment to Leadership in Eight Months

In February, Gilead Sciences looked like a company whose newest drug had failed to meet very high expectations. Today it is among the stronger large-cap biotech stocks of 2026, and most of the credit goes to one product. Yeztugo, the twice-yearly lenacapavir injection that prevents HIV infection, has gone from a source of investor frustration to the main support for the company's growth story.

The shares are now up about 24% to 25% for the year, well ahead of the S&P 500's gain of roughly 14%.1220 They closed at $151.17 in the most recent session tracked, a 2.77% gain on the day and about 4% below the 52-week high of $157.29.1420 That puts Gilead's market value at about $187 billion.14

What the February Slump Got Wrong

The rally only makes sense next to the selloff that came before it. When Gilead reported fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 10, the core business beat forecasts. Biktarvy brought in $4 billion and Descovy $819 million, both above analyst estimates.3 Even so, the shares fell as much as 6% after hours.3 RBC Capital Markets analyst Brian Abrahams pointed to Yeztugo as the likely cause. Fourth-quarter sales of $96 million missed the roughly $106 million analysts expected, and Gilead's 2026 forecast of about $800 million fell short of the $1 billion figure investors had privately hoped for.3

That episode shows how the market had come to value Gilead. Biktarvy and the rest of the HIV treatment business are huge and dependable. Investors were treating Yeztugo as the measure of whether Gilead could grow beyond that base, so a modest miss on one product overshadowed a strong quarter overall.

The Turn: Two Quarters of Beats

The first-quarter report in May changed the picture. Yeztugo brought in $166 million, up 72% from the prior quarter and above the $143 million analysts expected.67 Gilead raised its 2026 Yeztugo forecast to $1 billion, the level investors had wanted in February.27 Chief Commercial Officer Johanna Mercier called the launch "unprecedented" for a new long-acting PrEP product. She said Yeztugo now leads among patients switching from other prevention options and is drawing more first-time PrEP users than the company expected.12

The reaction to that report was not entirely positive. Abrahams said some investors might be "slightly disappointed" that Descovy, not Yeztugo, drove the overall beat.7 The shares slipped to about $132 in after-hours trading on the day of the report.7 Much of that drop likely reflected a separate announcement made at the same time, covered below.

The second quarter settled the question. Yeztugo sales reached $232 million, ahead of the $210 million analysts expected. HIV sales grew 12% from a year earlier, and Gilead raised its 2026 forecast for HIV product growth to 9%–10%.16 Total product sales rose 8% to $7.6 billion, and the low end of full-year product sales guidance moved up to $30.1 billion.9 Bank of America expects the trend to continue. It forecasts third-quarter Yeztugo sales of $292 million and recently raised its price target on the stock.20

The quarterly figures, from $96 million to $166 million to $232 million, suggest the launch is accelerating, not leveling off. Gilead now has to average about $300 million a quarter over the second half to hit $1 billion. Bank of America's third-quarter estimate implies the company is on track.

Why the Biotech Angle Matters: Long-Acting Prevention

Yeztugo matters scientifically as well as financially. Lenacapavir's twice-yearly schedule sets it apart from daily pills and addresses the adherence problems that have long limited oral PrEP.16 Large prevention trials found the drug nearly 100% effective.16 Gilead is also building more versions around the same molecule:

• Once-weekly oral tablet: The FDA has accepted a supplemental application for a 300-mg lenacapavir tablet for PrEP, with a decision date of Feb. 2, 2027.9
• Once-yearly injection: An experimental annual version is in Phase 3 testing and could launch as soon as 2028.715

These formulations give Gilead PrEP options at three dosing intervals, all based on one capsid-inhibitor drug. The company's strategy also benefits from how HIV patients behave: those who are stable on a regimen rarely switch, and Gilead now sells prevention drugs alongside treatment.12 Gilead's CFO said in March that the company faces no major loss of patent exclusivity until 2036.12 Together, these points explain why analysts now describe the HIV franchise as a growth business, not just a source of steady cash.

The early signs on persistence look good. Patients approaching their first anniversary are returning for further doses, and Mercier expects Yeztugo's persistence rates to become the highest in the HIV market over time.2 With roughly 95% of U.S. patients able to get the drug with no co-pay, insurance coverage, a common obstacle for new launches, appears largely solved.1

The Margin Question Abroad

The global access strategy is where analysts disagree. In September, Gilead extended six royalty-free voluntary licensing agreements to cover the experimental once-yearly lenacapavir across 120 high-incidence countries.15 It also signed an agreement with the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) that gives 14 Latin American and Caribbean countries outside the generic licensing deals, including Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia and Peru, a regional route to buy the twice-yearly shot.16

The financial coverage agrees on the trade-off. These deals favor patient volume over profit per patient, so economic returns abroad could be far below U.S. levels, where Yeztugo's annual list price is above $28,000.16 Simply Wall St described the moves as a shift toward a volume-based access model that relies on partners such as Dr. Reddy's and Hetero for production.11 Price transparency has also been raised. International AIDS Society President Beatriz Grinsztejn has criticized the confidential pricing in Gilead's supply agreement with the Global Fund. She argued that middle-income countries outside that deal have no reference point for their own negotiations. Gilead says the Global Fund price covers only the cost of making and delivering the drug, with no profit.19

My reading is that these programs matter more for Gilead's reputation and the drug's global position than for its near-term earnings. Revenue growth will continue to come from U.S. sales. The international deals strengthen lenacapavir's standing worldwide without significantly changing Gilead's profits.

The Earnings Noise Around the Rally

Gilead's headline earnings look poor even as its sales improve, and the coverage describes this inconsistently. In May, Gilead swung its 2026 earnings outlook to a loss of $0.65 to $1.05 per share because of charges tied to its acquisitions of Arcellx, Ouro Medicines and Tubulis.7 Reuters called this an adjusted loss. Other summaries show non-GAAP EPS guidance unchanged at $8.45 to $8.85 and put the loss on a GAAP basis.10 The CFO's own comment supports the second reading: excluding an $11.5 billion second-quarter charge for those deals, the earnings forecast would not have changed.7 In the second quarter, Gilead reported a loss of $6.75 per share, narrower than the expected $7.31, on revenue of $7.8 billion that beat forecasts.20

The net income figures in some valuation screens reflect accounting for acquired research and development, not a decline in the core business. That said, the deals show Gilead using HIV cash to expand in oncology and cell therapy, where results have been uneven. Trodelvy sales rose 37% in the first quarter, while cell therapy sales fell 12% as competition increased.7

Valuation: Is the Good News Priced In?

Analysts are split. UBS's Michael Yee rates the stock a Buy with a $175 target, citing Yeztugo-driven growth.14 Bank of America also rates it a Buy.20 On the other side, about 81% of the 21 analysts in one consensus summary rate the stock a Hold, and GuruFocus's intrinsic value model calls it roughly 38.6% overvalued.15 One analysis prices the stock at about 15.5 times earnings and compares Gilead's 6% to 7% base-business growth guidance with long-run market earnings growth of about 10%.12

The bullish case looks stronger to me, though not by much. Yeztugo has beaten estimates for two straight quarters, the oral and once-yearly versions offer a clear set of future catalysts, and exclusivity runs to 2036. Those factors justify a higher valuation than Gilead had when it was seen as a slow HIV business. The risk is that the stock now leans heavily on one drug. Yeztugo will need to beat expectations again in the third quarter. The next major test is the FDA decision on the weekly pill in February 2027.