Commercial Real Estate Brokerage Expansion Meets $875B Debt Wall

A growth playbook meets a tough market

A Forbes column published in August gives commercial real estate brokers a simple way to think about growth. It treats coverage as three choices: where you work, which property types you handle, and which clients you serve.11 The author draws on more than 25 years in the business and argues that geography is the natural first step. He adds a caution: moving from a big city into its suburbs can feel like entering a different market, while a region with uniform conditions is easier to expand across.11 The second path is asset-class specialization. Deep knowledge of multifamily, industrial, retail, office, development land or triple-net-lease property can follow investors who buy the same kind of building in several cities.11 The third rule ties the first two together. Clients should decide the direction of growth, and the firm should hire junior partners, associates or local specialists so that service quality doesn't slip as it gets bigger.11

None of this is new. What makes it timely is the market around it. It reaches brokers while commercial real estate is working through a large refinancing cycle, an office sector that is recovering slowly and unevenly, and a surprisingly strong year for publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs). Read alongside that backdrop, the column's quiet focus on following clients and building expertise is less general career advice than a fit for a market where knowing how deals get financed is what earns a broker the mandate.

Commercial real estate loans: the debt wave driving deals

The industry's loan data shapes everything else. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) says $875 billion, or 17% of about $5 trillion in outstanding commercial mortgages, is scheduled to mature in 2026, with another $652 billion due in 2027.26 That 2026 figure is 9% lower than the $957 billion scheduled for 2025, which the MBA reads as a sign the worst of the wave may be over.2630

This is where the coverage splits. Some analysts say the peak has passed. Others say it has only been delayed. S&P Global Market Intelligence expects maturities to peak in 2027 at about $1.26 trillion.2224 Goldman Sachs puts 2026–2027 maturities above $1.1 trillion, which it calls the largest two-year cluster on record.27 One reason for the gap is that loan extensions granted in 2023 and 2024 pushed debt forward. GlobeSt reported that roughly $180 billion originally due in 2024 was rolled into the current window.27

Our reading: the MBA's year-over-year decline is real, but it describes the calendar, not the stress. Lenders now appear unwilling to keep extending. One brokerage firm reports that 2026 extensions are lasting only a few months and are not expected to carry into 2027.25 The cost of refinancing is a big part of the problem. S&P Global estimates new commercial loans average about 6.2%, compared with 4.3% on the debt being paid off.25 A loan first sized at 75% of a property's value may now qualify for only 55% to 60% after values fell and rates rose.22 Owners in that position need new equity, a restructuring, or a sale.

For brokers, all of this means more deals. The MBA's chief economist expects maturities to drive more lending and more sales, not less.30 Brokerage firm Matthews calls the refinancing gap a powerful and unavoidable catalyst for transactions across every property type.25 One industry newsletter for brokers lists the ability to read debt markets, not just price buildings by square footage, among the skills this market rewards.13

The office market: recovering, with wide splits

Office is where the debt problem is sharpest, and the figures vary depending on who is counting. Yardi data put national office vacancy at 17.8% in August, down 90 basis points from a year earlier.23 CBRE reported 18.6% for the first quarter, with prime buildings much tighter at 12.7%.29 A lender's summary of second-quarter data shows 20.1%.28 LoanBoss, citing The Real Deal, uses 19.6%.27 The sources measure different building sets, so the numbers won't match. They do agree on the direction: vacancy is high but falling.

Demand is improving. CBRE counted 6.9 million square feet of net absorption in the first quarter, the strongest first quarter since 2020 and the eighth straight quarter of positive demand.29 Another market summary reports leasing at a post-pandemic high, sublease space 28% below its peak, and new construction at a 14-year low.28 Tenants are moving to better buildings, and leases above $100 per square foot hit record volume.28

The debt picture for office is still harsh. Trepp data showed the delinquency rate on office loans in commercial mortgage-backed securities reaching 12% in August.23 Yardi counts about 14,000 office properties with loans that have recently matured or will mature by the end of 2028, totaling $289.2 billion.23 The pressure is concentrated by city. In Seattle, vacancy is 24.7% and 70.1% of maturing loan volume was written before 2021. San Francisco vacancy is near 26%. Manhattan sits a little above 10%.23 LoanBoss estimates that 62% of the maturing office loans in its own portfolio would be underwater if refinanced at current rates.27

This is the clearest case for the Forbes column's asset-class advice.11 An office specialist who understands lease structures, operating costs and buyer expectations is what a struggling landlord or a distressed-debt buyer needs right now.11 It also suggests that geographic expansion should be targeted. Moving into Miami or Manhattan office work is a different bet from moving into Houston or Portland.23

REITs: a rebound that skips office

Public REITs are doing well. Nareit says the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs index returned 14.9% at mid-year, beating the broad stock market by 4.6 percentage points. That reverses 2025, when the Russell 1000 beat REITs by 15.1 points.1 Nareit also reports year-over-year growth of 14.8% in funds from operations (FFO), a standard measure of REIT cash earnings, in the first quarter.1 Heading into the year, Cohen & Steers had forecast index-level returns in the low to mid double digits.3

Office is the exception. Wealth managers interviewed by InvestmentNews said traditional office still faces structural problems from remote work and refinancing risk, and they focused on which REITs can handle upcoming debt maturities without diluting shareholders.6 Not every investor agrees. One portfolio manager told Nareit that return-to-office has become a tailwind, with leasing pipelines comparable to 2019 and almost no new supply.9 Office REIT strategies reflect the strain. BXP reset its dividend to keep cash for development and had sold $1.2 billion of non-core assets by mid-year.4 Kilroy and Cousins are still buying selectively.4

The link to brokerage is direct. Nareit points to open capital markets and strategic mergers as drivers of REIT growth.1 Its earlier outlook expected that REITs, with strong balance sheets, would be well placed to make acquisitions as more deals close.5 Well-funded REITs buying assets from stressed owners will create sales assignments, especially for brokers who already have relationships with both sides.

Big firms are consolidating

The largest firms are already capturing the volume. Commercial Property Executive's top 20 brokerages arranged more than $528.8 billion in transactions last year, about $70.7 billion more than in 2024. Their leases were valued at $477.2 billion.18 Newmark's sales volume rose to $70.4 billion from $43.1 billion.18 Mid-sized firms are hiring executives to compete. Mohr Partners created a president-of-brokerage role and filled it with a Newmark veteran to lead growth across its 24 U.S. offices.12 Crain's reports that CBRE, though first in New York, expects AI-related cuts.16

Our take

Put together, the coverage points one way. Brokerage growth in 2026 depends less on adding territory than on positioning: knowing which loans are coming due, which office buildings can still compete, and which REIT and private buyers have money to spend. The Forbes column's three options still hold, but the market changes their order.11 Asset-class expertise, especially in debt-heavy office, comes first. Client-led geographic growth comes second. New hires should be judged by whether they can underwrite deals, not just show property. A five-person team that doubled its pipeline in six months by adding systems instead of staff suggests the same: in this market, getting bigger matters less than getting more capable.13