Chip Stocks Face TSMC Earnings Test as Bitcoin Holds Near $84,000

The setup: a jittery tape meets a heavy calendar

Thursday's session brings the busiest stretch of the week so far, and it comes at a fragile moment for the market's favorite trade. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reports third-quarter results on Thursday, October 15, one day after ASML opens chip earnings season before the U.S. market opens on Wednesday.15 A large group of financial companies reports on the same day. Charles Schwab, PNC, U.S. Bancorp, Bank of New York Mellon, Marsh McLennan, Prologis, Interactive Brokers and Snap-on all have results on Thursday's calendar, and J.B. Hunt follows after the close.1119

Those reports land on a market that has been easing away from AI infrastructure stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has dropped about 7% from last Wednesday's close. Over the same stretch TSMC has slipped around 5.5% and ASML about 3.5%.8 The selling has been steady, with no single crash day. On October 8, Intel fell about 6.5% and Micron about 4.7%, while optical and specialty chip names such as Coherent, Tower Semiconductor and MaxLinear lost 8% to 10%.18 By Monday, October 12, the pressure had reached memory and photonics. SanDisk lost nearly 7% ahead of its own earnings, and Lumentum fell more than 7% as AI infrastructure stocks sold off broadly.20 The Nasdaq ended Monday 0.7% lower.29

My reading is that Thursday is the day this pullback either finds a floor or gets worse. TSMC's call is the event that decides which.

Why TSMC's call matters more than its numbers

TSMC's headline revenue is already public. The company said last week that third-quarter revenue came to about $46.7 billion, a record and roughly 50% higher than a year earlier.8 In local currency that is around NT$1.49 trillion, up about 51% and above the company's own guidance.2 That figure is already ahead of the roughly $45.5 billion consensus that analysts had published before the update.7

Estimates for profit growth vary with the measure. Some previews expect net profit to rise about 65% from a year earlier.39 Others put earnings-per-share growth nearer 55%.1 The adjusted EPS consensus is cited at about $4.42 per ADR, compared with $2.84 a year ago.7 All of these forecasts point the same way, and beating them is close to the normal outcome. TSMC has topped EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, by 7% to 13%.1

That record is the reason a beat may not be enough. TSMC's ADR dropped about 5% after it beat in the second quarter, and ASML fell about 7% after beating in the first quarter.1 In recent quarters the market has sold strong results. Investors seem less willing to assume that today's chip shortages and margins will last indefinitely.1

The previews agree on where the stock reaction will come from: forward guidance. The numbers to watch are TSMC's gross-margin guidance range of 65% to 67% and its operating-margin range of 56% to 58%.2 Analysts will also watch whether the company raises its full-year revenue outlook, now growth slightly above 40%, and what it says about 2027 growth and capital spending.2 Capex works in both directions. More spending helps equipment suppliers such as ASML but eats into TSMC's own free cash flow.1 Higher costs from expansion in Arizona and possibly Texas could also weigh on margins.2

One point in TSMC's favor is that expectations have come down. After a week in which the ADR fell nearly 8%, the bar looks lower than it was in July.1 On the bearish side, both TSMC and ASML trade below their 52-week highs, and investors selling ahead of the reports suggests crowded positioning.1 Over the last eight reports, quarterly stock reactions have ranged from about −7% to nearly +5%. That range tells traders the direction is uncertain.1

ASML sets the tone a day early

ASML's Wednesday report will shape how traders approach Thursday. Management guided for third-quarter sales of €11 billion to €12 billion and a gross margin of 55% to 57%.10 Consensus sits near €11.7 billion, which would be about 55% growth from a year earlier.69

EPS estimates differ somewhat. Forecasts per U.S. share include about $12.147, roughly $12.47610 and a lower $11.97.10 Previews also disagree on how far the stock has risen this year, with figures of about 54%1 and close to 70%.7 Either way, the shares have priced in a lot of good news.

The biggest difference between previews is what investors should focus on. Some still treat bookings and order commentary for 2027 as the main signal.16 Saxo's research team points out that ASML no longer publishes quarterly bookings, so its EUV production targets carry more weight. ASML expects to build about 65 low-NA EUV machines in 2026, plans for about 85 in 2027, and is considering around 110 for 2028.2 I think the capacity framing is more useful. Each of these machines costs about €200 million and takes more than a year to deliver, so a higher capacity target is a clearer signal than one quarter's order count.2 Investors will also check whether ASML keeps or raises its 2026 revenue guidance of €43 billion to €45 billion, which it lifted from €36 billion to €40 billion in July.610

If ASML sounds confident about 2027, TSMC goes into Thursday with momentum. If ASML sounds cautious, the same pattern of selling into strong results could carry straight into TSMC's report.

The macro overlay: CPI, yields and Warsh

The chip selloff is not only about earnings. Saxo links it to higher bond yields, geopolitical uncertainty and doubts about how big AI capital spending has become.2 Other reporting describes broader doubts about long-term returns from AI.1 Market data show the 10-year Treasury yield at about 5.24%, and WTI crude has stayed above $92 a barrel.2329

The U.S. Consumer Price Index report comes out Wednesday, a day before TSMC. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak on Friday.2627 A hot inflation reading would push yields higher on the day before chip earnings, which would make it harder for long-duration growth stocks to rally on good results.

Bitcoin: steadier than chips, but buyers are scarce

Crypto has held up better than the chip sector, at least for now. Bitcoin climbed back above $84,000 on Tuesday after sliding to about $81,700 on Monday.26 CoinDesk reported that it moved apart from falling South Korean stocks and Nasdaq futures, even as AI concerns dragged down the Kospi.2229 Pricing data place it between roughly $83,000 and $84,000.2124

The wider picture is weaker. Bitcoin is about 34% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,200.24 It is down about 5% for the year, and large altcoins have lost 5% to 10% in the past week.25 Demand from funds is the weak point. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $680 million in net outflows last week, the most since late June.27 Ether ETFs have recorded nine days of outflows in a row.25

The two sides of the market read the same chart differently. Bullish analysts note that Bitcoin is holding above its 50-day exponential moving average near $80,300, and Mudrex flagged the first bullish 13/34-week moving-average crossover in three and a half years.2627 Bearish analysts note that Bitcoin is still stuck below resistance around $86,000 to $87,000.27 They warn that a hot CPI reading could send it below $80,000, and that a break of that level could open the way to the mid-$70,000s.2527 Corporate buying continues on a small scale. Strategy added 250 BTC, bringing its holdings to 848,250.27

Crypto-linked stocks tend to move more than the coins themselves. On October 8, crypto stocks were among the biggest movers, and Hut 8 fell about 12%.1318 Bitcoin miners that have shifted toward AI data centers are exposed to both sides of Thursday's news. Applied Digital, a data-center operator, rallied that same week after reporting 322% revenue growth.13 A Financial Stability Board push for closer oversight of global stablecoins ahead of the G20 meeting on October 15 adds a policy headline for the same day.27

What to watch

I expect TSMC's beat to be taken for granted and its guidance to drive the reaction. If the company holds gross margins within or above its 65% to 67% range and sounds firm about 2027, the 7% semiconductor pullback will probably look like a reset in expectations. If guidance is cautious, the pattern of selling good results is likely to continue. Bank earnings will add to the day, but the chip call matters more.

For Bitcoin, Wednesday's CPI report matters more than anything in Thursday's earnings. The coin has held up against weak stocks so far. Whether it can push through the mid-$80,000s depends on yields easing and ETF outflows stopping.