Bitcoin Treasury Newcomer Supercycle Plans to Sell BTC at Peaks

A treasury company that plans its exit from day one

Most bitcoin treasury companies have sold themselves on one promise: buy bitcoin and never let it go. Supercycle Finance is starting from the opposite position. On October 2, the company announced a bitcoin treasury model led by co-founder and CEO Michael Terpin. Terpin wrote the book Bitcoin Supercycle, and he says the firm will sell its holdings when prices are high instead of only adding to them.1 "Most treasury companies only focus on accumulating bitcoin. We are building one that adjusts its exposure through the cycle," Terpin said, calling the approach one designed to beat holding bitcoin and never selling.1

The plan follows the "four seasons" framework from Terpin's book. The firm would buy when the market is down, sell into strength, and keep U.S. Treasuries and other interest-bearing assets in between.2 The book, published in late 2024, argues that bitcoin's price moves in cycles that can be predicted, much like real estate and equity markets.

The funding is modest. Terpin said a proposed Regulation A offering could raise up to $75 million, with most of it going into bitcoin, though he added the model could "support much higher amounts."1 Spanish-language coverage pointed out that $75 million is the ceiling for a Tier 2 Reg A offering over 12 months. It also stressed that this is a target, not money already raised.4344

There is a second business attached. Supercycle has acquired Presearch, a privacy-focused, crypto-linked search engine that shut down in July, along with its peer-to-peer compute platform Hypavolt.1 Terpin called it the first of several purchases of distressed or undervalued token ecosystems that the company would relaunch as its operating arm. He said the goal is to become "the Bending Spoons of crypto."1 Deal terms were not disclosed.46

Why selling is suddenly respectable

On its own, Supercycle is a small startup with a fundraising plan that hasn't closed yet. It matters because of timing. Its pitch puts into a business plan something the rest of the sector has been forced into over the past year: bitcoin treasuries do sell.

Strategy, the company that defined the model, is the clearest case. In May 2026, CEO Phong Le said on the Q1 earnings call that the firm would sell bitcoin "when it's advantageous to the company." Days later it sold 32 BTC, its first sale since 2022.6 In June it set up a "BTC Monetization Program" allowing up to $1.25 billion in sales to fund reserves, preferred dividends or buybacks. By mid-August it had sold 6,948 BTC for about $432.5 million.6 Other coverage gives a similar figure of $431.8 million for the year and says the sales funded dividends and buybacks.8 Miners sold too: MARA reportedly sold about 15,000 BTC in March, and Riot sold more than $250 million.6

What stands out is how Strategy now decides. Its management reportedly set a threshold: below an mNAV of 1.22x, selling bitcoin to pay dividends does more for per-share value than issuing common stock.17 Strategy also bought back in. In late August it purchased 4,603 BTC at an average of $80,318, about 29% more per coin than it got for the bitcoin it sold over the summer.6 So Strategy sold low and bought back higher. That is roughly the reverse of what Supercycle says it will do.

That contrast explains Supercycle's pitch. Strategy sells when its funding is under pressure. Supercycle says it will sell when the price cycle tells it to. Whether anyone can reliably call those turns is a separate question. Even friendly regional coverage noted that selling too early limits gains and buying too early exposes a company to further losses.44

The premium that powered the model is mostly gone

Supercycle is launching after the old flywheel broke. The treasury trade relied on mNAV, a company's market value relative to the bitcoin it holds. When that number is above 1, issuing stock buys more than a dollar of bitcoin for each dollar of dilution.11 Strategy's premium peaked near 4x and Metaplanet's at 9.9x.14 A DWF Ventures report from September 24 found that 16 of the 20 largest digital asset treasury companies were trading below net asset value. Only Bit Digital, Strive, Hyperliquid Strategies and BitMine were still at a premium.11

Strategy's own discount depends on who is measuring. One analysis put its mNAV at about 0.98 on October 8.11 mNAV.com showed 0.89 on its gross measure the day before.14 Yahoo Finance reported a basic mNAV of 0.87 in October, while Strategy's own dashboard, using a redefined metric, showed a 1.12x premium.6 By October 30, mNAV.com put it at 1.19x.20 Those gaps say a lot. Strategy changed its yardstick in July to subtract preferred stock and out-of-the-money convertible debt, and the number now depends heavily on methodology.6 Smaller holders face no such ambiguity. One tracker lists Next Technology Holding at an mNAV of 0.02.15

The exits are piling up. France's Sequans sold its last 314 BTC on September 24, about 15 months after starting a treasury funded with $384 million in equity and convertible debt.11 Japan's IORE has resolved to sell all 151.21 BTC and put the estimated ¥1.831 billion into AI data centers.10 Next Technology's board approved selling or pledging about 5,833 BTC on October 30. It cited Binance's security incident, hacking threats and quantum computing risk, even though none of its coins were held at Binance.57 That stake was worth about $452 million against a market value of roughly $7.5 million.8 Some analysts are skeptical of the quantum explanation. They note that large holders aren't selling over it and that BIP-360, a proposed defense, is still a draft.9

One point is clear across this coverage. When a stock trades far below the coins it holds, selling those coins is often the only lever left, whatever reason the board gives.

ETF flows give little cover

Demand through ETFs hasn't offset the drag. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs lost $678.9 million in the week of October 5–9, ending three straight weeks of inflows.24 Reports linked that week to rising Treasury yields and inflation worries.23 Flows swung back and forth all month, with big inflow days quickly reversed. A $528.4 million inflow on October 21 was followed by a $635.6 million outflow the next day.25 On October 30 the funds lost $643.3 million, leaving October about $515 million negative with total assets near $98.1 billion.21 BlackRock's IBIT held up better than its rivals, gaining about $736 million over the past month while Fidelity's FBTC lost roughly $694 million.21

Weekly outflows were small relative to total assets, under 1% in the October 5–9 week.23 But a market without steady ETF buying gives a cycle-timing treasury little help. The plan also depends on bitcoin dropping far enough to count as a buying opportunity. Bitcoin was trading below $80,000 at the start of November, between its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, on thin volume.8

Custody and charters change the backdrop

The regulatory picture is also shifting, in ways that both help and complicate treasury companies. The OCC gave final approval to Ripple's national trust charter on October 27. That was one of more than two dozen conditional or final approvals under the current administration.34 Ramp, Rain and Modern Treasury have all applied for trust charters that would include digital asset custody.37 The SEC has proposed custody rules that would let state-chartered trust companies qualify as crypto custodians.32 Over time, more federally supervised custodians should make it easier for small treasury companies to explain to investors how their coins are held. Next Technology's reaction to the Binance incident shows that this question now carries weight in the boardroom.5

The charter pathway is under legal challenge, though. On October 2, the Independent Community Bankers of America sued the OCC. The group argues that charters for non-depository, non-fiduciary trust banks go beyond the National Bank Act and give crypto firms "a side door into the banking system."31 The complaint counts 21 trust bank approvals under this administration, at least 13 of them for crypto companies. One law firm's assessment is that every pending crypto charter now carries litigation risk.32

The read

Supercycle Finance is not a market-moving player. Its raise hasn't happened, it is capped at $75 million, and it is tied to a strategy of reviving failed token projects that hasn't been tested.144 What it shows is where the industry's thinking has gone. The "never sell" promise has turned into a decision about which costs less at the time, selling bitcoin or issuing stock.6 Supercycle has simply dropped the pretense. The open question is whether timing the market is a real advantage or a different way to underperform, and that will only be answered over a full cycle. It is still a more honest pitch to investors who watched the premium disappear in 2026.