Bitcoin Treasury Companies Keep Buying as ETF Flows Turn Choppy

The treasury trade is still buying

In mid-October 2026 the companies that hold bitcoin on their balance sheets are still adding coins. The investors who fund them, and the ETF buyers who used to set the market's direction, are much less consistent. The clearest example came on the evening of October 13, when Strive (ASST) announced a new perpetual preferred stock called SATS. It pays a fixed 15% dividend, and Strive wants to sell 5 million shares at $100 each to raise $500 million.2 The money can go to more bitcoin, income-producing assets or stock buybacks. SATS will rank below Strive's existing variable-rate preferred, SATA, which currently pays 13%.2 When the offering closes, Strive plans to set aside enough cash to cover 18 months of SATS dividends.2

The offering follows a fast run of purchases. Strive bought 3,311 BTC for about $280 million between October 5 and October 9, which took its holdings to 32,773 BTC. That is the first time it has held more than 30,000 coins.5 Three months earlier it held fewer than 20,000.2 Warrant exercises worth roughly $208 million helped pay for the buying.5

Strategy, the largest corporate holder, is also still buying, though more slowly. As of October 4 it held 848,000 BTC, bought for a total of $63.97 billion at an average of about $75,441 per coin. Its October 5 disclosure added only 334 BTC.3 In the week of October 5 to 11 it bought 250 bitcoin and spent $192.4 million buying back its own STRC preferred shares.10 Buying back preferred stock while adding only a small amount of bitcoin suggests Strategy is now managing its capital structure as much as it is adding coins.

Bigger stacks, thinner per-share gains

The treasury business model has been under scrutiny for a year, and the hard questions are about per-share value, not total coins. Strategy has added more than 175,000 BTC since the end of 2025, about a 26% increase. Even so, it reported a year-to-date BTC Yield of negative 3.7% as of October 4. In plain terms, the bitcoin backing each assumed share has fallen because new issuance diluted holders faster than the purchases added coins.3 The company's cash reserve also shrank, from $5.02 billion to $4.88 billion in one week, after it used reserve funds for preferred dividends and interest.3 In the second quarter, an $8.32 billion unrealized loss on its bitcoin led to an $8.22 billion net loss.3

Coverage of the sector agrees on that tension and disagrees on what it means. A September analysis counted 179 listed companies holding bitcoin and found that the 50 largest had lost a combined $83 billion in market value since July 2025.8 StoneX analyst Mark Palmer argued in that piece that the right measure is bitcoin per fully diluted share after subtracting debt and preferred claims. Selling stock above net asset value adds bitcoin to each existing share, he said, and selling it below destroys value.8 Another StoneX commentator predicted that about 95% of these companies would be shaken out.8 Strive CEO Matt Cole answered by pointing to performance, saying Strive, Strategy and Metaplanet have all beaten bitcoin since adopting the model.8 Some failures are well documented: Nakamoto Inc. stock fell 99% from its 2025 peak.8

Market pricing gives Strategy some room for now. A tracker showed its mNAV, the ratio of company value to the bitcoin it holds, at about 1.20x in early October, so it can still issue stock above the value of its holdings.4 MSTR shares rose 61.2% over the three months to early October, even though Zacks still rates the stock as very expensive.3 Strategy will report third-quarter results after the market closes on October 29, with a webinar at 5 p.m. Eastern.6 That report should show whether the issuance machine added value per share during a volatile quarter. A day earlier, on October 28, shareholders vote on daily dividend record dates for the company's preferred stock.4

Preferred stock is now the main funding source

SATS and the STRC buybacks show where the sector's funding now comes from. With fewer common-stock buyers paying a premium, the biggest treasury companies are leaning on high-yield preferred shares. Strategy's STRC rate stays at 12% for October. Strive's SATA pays 13% and makes payments every business day.4 Strive says SATA has paid 83 dividends in a row since December 2025 and that the company has no debt.4

The concern is that these instruments come with cash obligations that bitcoin itself does not produce, and preferred holders get paid before common shareholders.8 A 15% fixed coupon that ranks behind an existing preferred is an expensive way to raise money, even with 18 months of dividends set aside.2 This looks like a bet that bitcoin's price will rise faster than the cost of the capital used to buy it. The 18-month reserve signals Strive knows that bet needs time to pay off.

Smaller companies are trying other approaches. Toronto-listed Bitcoin Treasury Corporation raised its bitcoin per share by 1.21% in September by buying back stock, while its total holdings fell to 737.33 BTC.7 Supercycle Finance, led by Michael Terpin, says it will not just accumulate. It plans to buy during downturns, sell near cycle tops and hold Treasuries in between, starting with a proposed Reg A raise of up to $75 million.1 A treasury company that plans to sell from the start is a direct challenge to the buy-and-hold model Strategy made popular.

ETF flows: early October gains reversed

Spot bitcoin ETFs added to the uncertainty. In the three weeks ending October 2, US spot funds took in about $2.6 billion.13 The week before that brought roughly $2.4 billion, near a one-year high.15 Then inflows faded. Trackers disagree on the week ending October 2: one provisional tally put it at $82.9 million14, and others report about $241 million.1517

The next week was clearly negative. Bitcoin ETFs lost about $679 million from Monday to Friday. Wednesday, October 7, saw an outflow of roughly $485 million, the largest single day since June.17 Exact numbers vary by tracker. One dataset recorded about $347 million for October 711, and another showed $487.1 million.12 Even so, every tracker shows the same direction. As of October 12, one tally had October net flows at about negative $454 million12, and Decrypt's tracker showed negative $386.3 million through October 9.16 On October 13, the funds took in $175.7 million, with Fidelity's FBTC adding $103.1 million and BlackRock's IBIT adding $65.9 million.19

The longer-term picture is calmer. Cumulative net inflows since January 2024 are about $57 billion, and total assets are roughly $106 billion.12 Year-to-date figures range from about $544 million18 to more than $1.2 billion15, depending on the cutoff date and source. That spread reflects a rough first half: the funds were about $5.8 billion in the red by mid-July.15 One analysis noted that part of the recent buying came from hedge funds running basis trades. Those trades are hedged positions, not long-term bets on bitcoin, so headline inflows can overstate real demand.13 As of the October 13 tally, bitcoin traded around $83,5002, about 32% below its October 2025 peak.13

Regulation: the agencies are writing the rules

Policy explains much of the recent volatility. On September 15, the Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act, the crypto market structure bill. The cloture vote was 49 to 50, short of the 60 needed.2422 Coverage agrees on the main reasons. Democrats wanted stronger ethics provisions covering President Trump's crypto businesses. Banks argued that yield-bearing stablecoins could pull deposits away from them.2226 Republicans Susan Collins, Josh Hawley and Jerry Moran joined the Democrats in voting no.29 Senator Thom Tillis also voted no, but only so he could file a motion to reconsider and keep the bill alive.2223 Most observers still consider passage in this Congress unlikely with midterms coming.22

Markets reacted right away. Coinbase fell as much as 12%, Circle dropped 13%, and bitcoin briefly fell below $75,000.26 ETFs then recorded heavy outflows, followed by a nine-session run of inflows worth about $3 billion.16 The rebound looks like investors deciding the regulatory delay hurt less than they first feared, rather than a sign that the setback didn't matter.

Regulators moved quickly to fill the gap. Two days after the vote, the CFTC sent a crypto rulemaking to the White House for review. Binding rules may still be more than a year away.22 The SEC created an innovation exemption for tokenized stocks, and Chairman Paul Atkins explicitly connected it to the bill's failure.29 Comments on the SEC's proposed crypto asset regulation are due October 20.22 Two limits apply to rules written this way. Agency rules cannot override state law the way the bill would have22, and a future administration can change or reverse them.28

What this adds up to

The treasury trade is no longer one bet. Strategy is managing its funding structure, Strive is borrowing expensively to grow quickly, and smaller companies are trying buybacks or timing the market. Before October 29, the gap between Strategy's growing stack and its negative per-share yield matters more than its total coin count. Whether investors keep paying above net asset value, and keep buying 12% to 15% preferred stock, will probably decide which companies survive the shakeout analysts expect. With ETF flows erratic and federal legislation stalled until at least the next Congress, these companies will be raising money in a market where demand and regulation both remain uncertain.