Arkansas Gas Prices Slip to $3.96 as Crude Rebounds Above $90

Arkansas pump prices drift lower

Arkansas drivers have seen pump prices ease slowly over the past few weeks. The drop is small, and it comes while oil markets are swinging hard and the national average sits at levels never before seen in October. The AAA Arkansas Weekend Gas Watch, released Thursdays, put the statewide average for regular unleaded at $3.99 a gallon on October 1. That was 7 cents less than the week before, and it took Arkansas back under $4.34 The October 8 report showed the same $3.99, unchanged from the prior week but $1.29 higher than a year earlier.3637 By the weekend of October 11, AAA's daily figure had slipped to $3.96. A month earlier it was $3.95, and a year earlier it was $2.68.38 AAA's state table for October 13 lists Arkansas regular at about $3.956, mid-grade at $4.447, premium at $4.832 and diesel at $5.912.31

Taken together, these numbers show a market that has stopped climbing more than one that is falling. The state saw a sharp spike in September. On September 14, KATV reported an 18-cent jump in one week to $3.95, and diesel rose 34 cents to $5.91 over the same stretch. A few days later, Gasolytics showed regular at $4.08.32 The recent decline has given back that September surge. It has not reversed the much larger increase from last year.

Local detail: Hot Springs lowest, Northwest Arkansas highest

Prices differ across the state's metro areas. In the October 1 report, Texarkana had the highest average at $4.03 and Hot Springs the lowest at $3.84. Jonesboro fell 6 cents to $3.93.3435 A week later, Jonesboro had risen 4 cents to $3.97. Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers was the most expensive metro at $4.06, and Hot Springs stayed cheapest at $3.86.3637 So the state average holding at $3.99 hid movement in both directions underneath.

Arkansas remains one of the cheaper places in the country to buy gasoline, though reports give slightly different rankings. AAA's October 1 release placed it eighth cheapest.34 KARK's October 8 story called it eighth cheapest in its summary and ninth lowest in the body.37 AAA's national roundup from mid-October listed Arkansas at $3.96 among the ten cheapest states. Georgia, Texas, Ohio, Indiana and North Carolina were below it.39 The exact rank depends on the day and changes by a cent or two, but the pattern is consistent: Arkansas is cheaper than most of the country. One analysis puts Arkansas's state fuel tax at 25 cents a gallon, 35th among the states.33

The national picture: lower, but still a record for autumn

Nationally, AAA's average has also edged down. It fell nearly 7 cents to $4.41 in the week ending October 1. That came after the highest September on record, when the monthly average was $4.33, 50 cents above the previous September record set in 2023.3414 By October 8, it was down another 5 cents to $4.36. AAA said this is the first year the national average has stayed above $4 in October.3637 As of October 13, AAA's average was about $4.34, roughly 2 cents below the week before.1831

Different trackers report different national averages. GasBuddy put the national figure at $4.29 on October 13. It also reported a median price of $4.09 and said $3.99 was the most common price drivers saw.16 The Energy Information Administration's weekly survey had regular at $4.354 as of October 5, down 11 cents from the week before.1713 These gaps come from different methods. All the trackers agree on the trend: prices have flattened or dipped slightly from late-September highs and remain far above last year. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan said more states saw gasoline prices fall than rise last week. GasBuddy called the current calm "fragile."16

The year-over-year increase is large. LendingTree's analysis of AAA data shows the national average up 39.4% from a year earlier as of October 6. Diesel rose 71.7% over the same period to $6.32.11 Arkansas's gap of about $1.29 a gallon is roughly the same as the national gap.37

Crude oil: why the relief has been small

The main reason prices eased is that crude fell for a while. AAA and KAIT linked the early-October decline to crude dropping back into the $90-a-barrel range.3435 KARK reported that oil spent several days in the low $80s before climbing back above $90 on October 8.37 Federal spot data shows West Texas Intermediate near $99.77 on October 1 and about $96 by October 5–6.29

That pullback was brief. On October 8, Brent rose about 5% to roughly $105 a barrel. Iran had increased attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Mexico producers shut in output ahead of what became Hurricane Isaias.2324 On October 12, prices climbed again after Houthi drone attacks on two Saudi airports. Brent closed near $106 and WTI at $93.16.22 NBC News also blamed an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, announced by President Trump, that failed to hold, and said Brent briefly approached $108.30 On October 13, WTI settled up 40 cents at $94.14 and Brent fell 96 cents to $105.69. Traders were weighing Saudi-Houthi tensions against the chance of more Russian diesel reaching the market.26

The background is the US-Israeli war with Iran, now in its eighth month. Iranian restrictions on Hormuz shipping have repeatedly pushed oil prices up.2224 Russian refining has also been badly damaged by Ukrainian strikes. The IEA estimates Russian diesel output is down nearly 30% from 2025 levels.30 Diesel has been hit hardest: AAA's national diesel average was $6.26 on October 12, almost 80% above January's level.30 Arkansas diesel sits just under $6.31

Policy moves draw skepticism

The White House has tried several times to bring fuel prices down before the November 3 midterms. President Trump announced a deal for Russia to supply diesel in stages, starting with 300,000 tons.22 Analysts have been doubtful. Goldman Sachs estimated that about 800,000 metric tons of extra Russian diesel would cut US Gulf Coast and European wholesale diesel prices by only $1 to $2 a barrel.26 De Haan said he doubts the deal will bring much relief to truckers or consumers.16 G7 countries also agreed to release 100 million barrels from reserves. Oilprice.com noted this is part of an earlier 400-million-barrel plan that markets had already factored in.23

In short, the policy steps announced so far are small compared with the supply problems. That makes it unlikely they will push Arkansas pump prices much lower in the near term.

Natural gas: a separate, calmer market

Natural gas has been far steadier than oil. November Henry Hub futures were around $3.17 per million British thermal units on October 13, with forecasts of mild weather.3 The EIA's monthly Henry Hub spot average was $2.95 in September, up from $2.78 in August.2 Gas in storage was 3,415 billion cubic feet as of late September, 79 Bcf above the five-year average. That surplus is a major reason prices have stayed in the low $3s.7 The EIA's October outlook expects Henry Hub to average $3.48 this year and $3.16 in 2027, down from its July forecast.79

This matters for Arkansas households because gasoline and home heating are moving separately. Gasoline follows crude, and crude reacts to every development in the Middle East and Russia. Gas follows domestic storage, weather and LNG export demand, and those are currently keeping prices in check. There are still risks. Futures prices for winter months are higher, with January 2027 near $3.87.5 Henry Hub spot averaged $7.72 in January 2026 after Winter Storm Fern.9

What comes next

Oil prices are high and volatile, and that tends to limit how far pump prices can fall. One market tracker notes that pump prices usually follow crude with a lag of one to two weeks.15 WTI was back in the mid-$90s by October 13.2126 That suggests the dip into the $80s in early October has already reached the pump, and the most recent rebound has not yet. A modest offset is that cheaper winter-blend gasoline has rolled out across most of the country.

Arkansas could stay just under $4 for some time. Low state taxes and a location near Gulf Coast supply help keep it below the national average. However, the state still depends on crude prices set by events in the Strait of Hormuz and in Russia. Arkansas drivers should not expect much more relief while crude stays above $90.