Anthropic IPO Targets $2 Trillion Valuation, Topping SpaceX Record

A record that may last only five months

In June, SpaceX's Nasdaq debut became the largest IPO ever recorded, well ahead of the old record. Anthropic, the company behind the Claude models, now looks set to break that record before the end of the year. Reporting based on a leaked confidential prospectus says Anthropic is targeting a valuation of $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion. That would put it above the $1.77 trillion valuation SpaceX carried when it listed.2 The Wall Street Journal, as cited by CNN, reports that Anthropic could raise as much as $100 billion. That would beat SpaceX's raise of about $86 billion and would place Anthropic among the ten most valuable companies in the world.6

The figures are large even next to SpaceX, which was itself an outlier. Saudi Aramco's 2019 offering, which raised about $29 billion, is now a distant reference point.6 University of Florida professor emeritus Jay Ritter, who tracks IPO data, told CNN that SpaceX could slip to roughly second place within about a month.6 Most outlets agree on the main point: if the deal prices near its target, it will be the biggest stock-market debut in history.38

The timeline has slipped more than once

The reporting differs most on timing, and the date has clearly moved. Anthropic confidentially submitted a draft S-1 to the SEC on June 1, shortly after a Series H round that valued it at $965 billion.11 At first the listing was expected soon after Labor Day. Reuters later reported a window of mid-October or after, and then a date following the November midterms.11 Forge Global's write-up still describes an October target, which shows how quickly earlier reports went out of date.19

The latest and most specific account comes from Bloomberg. It says Anthropic could start marketing the shares in the week of November 9 and debut before Thanksgiving on November 26, though the timing could still change.3 Logos Press, which summarizes Reuters and Bloomberg, also points to mid-November.2 In our view, a pre-Thanksgiving pricing is now the main scenario. Activity in the IPO market usually slows during the holidays, but the company is still expected to list by year-end.3

The exchange looks more settled. Business Insider reported that Anthropic chose Nasdaq.5 That matters because a Nasdaq rule in effect since May 1 lets a large enough new listing join the Nasdaq-100 after only 15 trading days. SpaceX used that rule this summer, going from its June 12 listing to index membership by July 7.5

Who is underwriting, and who gets shares

Reports on the bank lineup broadly agree, with small differences. One guide names Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Citi as lead underwriters and mentions a $15 billion revolving credit facility being finalized alongside the deal.11 Yahoo Finance, as cited by Capital.com, also expected Barclays to take a leading role after providing debt financing.15 The Banker reports that Goldman, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley could earn hundreds of millions of dollars in fees on a $100 billion raise, more than they earned on SpaceX.17

It is still unclear whether ordinary investors will get a real share of the IPO. Benzinga reports that Anthropic has not said how much of the offering, if any, will go to retail buyers.16 One source told Benzinga that the decision rests with the lead underwriters and the company.16 In the same report, a DealMaker survey found that 63% of U.S. adults worry that trillion-dollar IPOs could leave retail buyers paying inflated prices while early investors cash out.16

The float, meaning the share of stock available to trade, may be the most important structural detail. SpaceX listed with less than 5% of its shares trading and entered the Nasdaq-100 at a weight of only about 1%. The Motley Fool expects Anthropic could follow a similar path.5 Brokers also warn that a small float can make early trading volatile.1214

The existing shareholders

The IPO would be a large payday for Anthropic's current backers. Anthropic's valuation rose from $61.5 billion in March 2025 to $965 billion this May, roughly a 16-fold increase.5 The Series H round was led by Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks and Sequoia.15 Memory-chip makers Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix also took part.19 Analysts estimate that Amazon owns about 15% to 21% of the company and Alphabet about 10% to 15%.12 Alphabet's second-quarter filing already valued its stake at about $124.3 billion.7 The Motley Fool estimates that a $2 trillion listing could give the two companies $300 billion to $400 billion in much more liquid holdings once lockups end.20

Governance will draw attention. Reuters reported a plan that would give Anthropic's seven co-founders, each holding about 2% of the economic stake, 50.1% of combined voting power. A Long-Term Benefit Trust with no economic stake would elect a majority of the board.12 Investors would be buying shares in a public benefit corporation where control sits with the founders and a trust, not with outside shareholders.

The numbers behind the valuation

The financial details in the leaked prospectus support both bulls and bears. Revenue grew nearly twelvefold in 2025 to $4.6 billion.4 The company also reported a net loss of $42 billion. About $34 billion of that came from non-cash accounting changes in the value of convertible securities, leaving an operating loss of a little over $8 billion.23 Second-quarter revenue reportedly rose more than 1,000% to $11.5 billion.4 The Financial Times, cited by CNN, reports that Anthropic told investors it would be profitable for a second straight quarter.6 That profit is an adjusted figure that excludes stock-based compensation.12

The spending commitments are the largest risk. The prospectus reportedly shows at least $518 billion in infrastructure and compute obligations over the next decade, and about 80% of that cannot be cancelled.7 The Information reports that Anthropic has pushed back its expected move to positive cash flow until 2028.10 Skeptics point out that the company would list at a price-to-sales ratio well above 30. They also note that the hottest tech IPOs of the past 14 years fell 55% on average from peak to trough in their first year.8 SpaceX shows the pattern: it priced at $135 a share, rose above $225 within days, fell below $105 by August, and now trades about 10% above its offer price.4

Rival and partner at the same time

The comparison with SpaceX goes beyond who holds the record. Anthropic's prospectus reportedly includes compute agreements with SpaceX worth up to $84.5 billion through 2029, for access to Nvidia-based infrastructure. That is almost twice the roughly $45 billion implied by SpaceX's own filing.7 Unlike most of Anthropic's commitments, these contracts can mostly be cancelled on 90 days' notice, which gives the company some flexibility if growth slows.7 So the two companies compete for investor money while one is also a major supplier to the other.2

The wider market makes the bet look bigger still. The Financial Times calculated that SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI together are valued at more than $5 trillion. That is more than the combined first-day value of all 3,365 U.S. tech IPOs from 1980 through 2025, which Ritter puts at about $4.07 trillion.110 One caveat applies: Anthropic's $2 trillion is a target, OpenAI's figure is a proposed private valuation, and Ritter's historical numbers are not adjusted for inflation.10

Why it matters

Anthropic is moving ahead in difficult conditions. The Federal Reserve raised rates to a 3.75% to 4.00% range in September.12 The FTC has named Anthropic and OpenAI in an inquiry into AI agents.3 The prospectus itself reportedly warns that Anthropic's models could pose a "catastrophic or existential risk to humanity."6 OpenAI has ruled out going public in 2026, and Sam Altman told Fortune that now would be an ill-advised moment to list.3

That gives Anthropic a clear lead in the race to public markets, and leaves it alone as the test case for AI valuations. Our view: demand is very likely to fill a book with a thin float, and the record looks within reach. Pricing the deal is the easy part. The harder test comes once the public S-1, quarterly results and lockup expirations show whether a company that is growing fast but still burning cash can hold a $2 trillion valuation. A strong debut would set the benchmark for OpenAI's eventual listing. A sharp drop like SpaceX's would raise doubts about the whole AI trade.49