Anthropic IPO: Skeptics Question $2 Trillion Valuation Target

A bear case lands before the roadshow

Anthropic is preparing what could become the largest public offering on record. As the Claude developer moves toward a Nasdaq listing, it is also drawing its loudest valuation critics so far.

Independent research firm New Constructs published a note on Tuesday calling the offering the "most ridiculous IPO of 2026." The firm put Anthropic's worth at about $150 billion, far below the roughly $2 trillion market capitalization the company is reportedly targeting.12 Its reasoning was blunt. To justify a $2 trillion price, Anthropic would need to earn about twice the profit Nvidia, the world's most valuable tech company, has made over its trailing four quarters.12 New Constructs pointed to widening operating losses and growing competition from open-source models, concluding that it does not believe Anthropic "has a viable business." It framed the listing as an "unprecedented test of investor gullibility."2

The note did not stand alone. On Wednesday, "The Big Short" investor Michael Burry compared Anthropic's valuation with those of established S&P 500 companies and highlighted the gap.1 The financial figures behind the debate are stark. Anthropic reportedly generated $4.6 billion in revenue in 2025 while posting a net loss of $42 billion, according to Reuters figures cited by CNBC.2

The timeline and the mechanics

The offering itself is moving quickly. Anthropic has invited prospective investors to an October 14 gathering at its San Francisco headquarters.3 Bloomberg describes it as a pre-IPO investor day.5 A formal roadshow could start as early as the week of November 9, which would put trading on the Nasdaq before Thanksgiving on November 26.35 Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are leading the deal, which is expected to raise about $100 billion. Prospective investors reportedly see fair value somewhere between $1.8 trillion and $2 trillion.3

That range is a big jump from recent marks. Bloomberg has described Anthropic as a "$965 billion AI titan," so the IPO target roughly doubles a valuation that was already enormous.5 Menlo Ventures partner Matt Murphy, an early backer, invested when the company was worth $4.1 billion.4

The number that may matter more than the headline

One analysis argues that the most important figure is not the valuation at all. It is about $518 billion in future cloud, compute and infrastructure obligations, nearly all of them non-cancellable.3 Recent deals show how those commitments keep growing, including a reported $35 billion cloud agreement with Lambda.5

These obligations sharpen the skeptics' argument. A company losing tens of billions of dollars a year while locked into hundreds of billions of fixed spending has little room to slow down if revenue growth disappoints or open-source alternatives push prices lower. New Constructs did not put it in exactly these terms. Still, its worry about operating losses and the infrastructure-commitment concern point the same way: the bet depends on demand outgrowing a very large and largely fixed cost base.

Lukewarm appetite in the room

Sentiment among people closer to the industry also looks guarded. At a Business Insider event, chief correspondent Ben Bergman asked attendees whether they would buy Anthropic shares at a $3 trillion valuation. Three hands went up. At $1.5 trillion, only a few more joined.4 An informal show of hands proves nothing, but it was a muted reaction to the company widely seen as a symbol of the AI boom.

The same discussion showed how much depends on this listing. Simpson Thacher partner Heidi Mayon said companies have been reluctant to go public ahead of Anthropic and OpenAI. She described a wait-and-see attitude, including at Oura, whose planned offering was delayed.4 Bloomberg's coverage makes a similar point. It notes that Anthropic's mega-IPO hangs over a crowded U.S. listing calendar, and Madrona has argued that the deal could open the floodgates for AI listings.5

Reading the moment

The sources agree on the basic facts: a roughly $2 trillion target, a fast pre-Thanksgiving schedule, and losses that are very large compared with revenue. They differ on what those facts mean. Supporters see a company with a historic growth curve. New Constructs sees a valuation that cannot be squared with any plausible profit path.

The most reasonable view sits between the two. A $150 billion estimate assumes the business model never matures, which is a strong claim about a company growing this fast. But a $2 trillion price tag, paired with $518 billion in fixed commitments and a $42 billion annual loss, leaves almost no margin for error. Anthropic's broader news flow, including a legal win against the Trump administration and concern over its Mythos model, adds headline risk to the picture without settling it.5

The October 14 investor day will be the first real test of whether institutional buyers accept the bullish case at full price. The outcome will matter beyond Anthropic, because other companies are waiting to see how this listing goes before deciding on their own.